This is a best prospect industry sector for this country. Includes a market overview and trade data.
Overview

Unit: US Millions
 2016 2017
 
2018
 
2019
(estimated)
Total Market Size153.76169.90181.7195.8
Total Local Production0000
Total Exports0000
Total Imports153.76169.90181.7195.8
Imports from the U.S.68.3893.03107.17130.29
Exchange Rate: 1 USD100.0103.0101101.5
NB: All figures in millions of USD with exception of exchange rate in Kenya shillings (Kshs
Applicable HS Codes: 401130; 840710; 840910; 840991; 840999; 8411; 8802; 8803; 880510; 940110
Total Market Size = (Total Local Production + Total Imports) – (Total Exports).

Data Sources:
Total Market Size: Global Trade Atlas
Total Local Production: N/A
Total Exports: N/A
Total Imports: Global Trade Atlas
Imports from U.S: Global Trade Atlas
Exchange Rate:  Central Bank of Kenya

Kenya is the largest and most developed transport and logistics hub in East & Central Africa with JKIA being East Africa’s largest aviation hub and host to various airlines, both local and international, that use Nairobi as the primary entry point into Africa. Kenya has 11 airports, 4 of which are international and anther 468 aerodromes and airstrips. The Ministry of Transport & Infrastructure has the policy oversight and the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA) is the industry regulator. Kenya Airports Authority (KAA) operates all airports and aerodromes and manages the assets including overseeing the security.

Aircraft and aircraft parts sales have continued to register significant decline in market size over the last three years owing to the multi-year massive losses incurred by national carrier Kenya Airways, which resulted in reduction in investments in aircraft and parts. Under its restructuring plan, the carrier has leased out and sold off some of its more expensive planes in a cost-cutting and cash raising plan that brought an end to an earlier ambitious fleet expansion plan.   The losses at the national carrier seem to have stopped and the situation under control with the airline banking on new routes such as the much-anticipated Nairobi-New York route to drive growth.  Private operators, both corporate and individuals, continue to invest in new and used imported aircrafts for the domestic and regional market.  Kenya has no domestic production of aircraft or aircraft parts.

According to KCAA, the industry regulator, there were 1388 registered aircraft in Kenya in 2016, a 20% growth from 2012. The key drivers for the aircraft and aircraft parts industry in Kenya over the last several years have been tourism and a growing cargo business resulting from increased exports in horticultural produce and imports of high value goods.  Kenya’s tourism sector seems to be recovering well from a decline in visitor arrivals owing to terrorism four years ago.  In 2017, the sector experienced a 20% increase in revenues at $1.9bn and recorded a 9.8% growth in tourist numbers from the previous year to stand at 1.47million visitors.   Overall, Kenya’s airports recorded an 11% growth in passenger traffic in 2016 to stand at a record 9m passengers. This growth is expected to continue into 2017.

With respect to air cargo, according to Business Monitor International (BMI), Kenya's air freight sector has enjoyed a fantastic level of growth over recent years, a trend that is expected to continue in 2018. Kenya’s horticultural exports, together with surging imports, are ensuring full cargo loads for airlines on both outbound and inbound flights respectively.

Further, Kenya’s low-cost carrier segment is on course to record improved performance owing to the growing middle class in Kenya. KQ currently flies to close to 60 destinations, with the vast majority being routes in Africa, and is a full member of the Sky Team Alliance comprised of Delta, Air France, and KLM among others since June 2010. KQ’s low cost carrier, Jambo Jet, flies domestically and recently added routes to several African countries.  There are almost 50 local airlines flying in Kenya, majority of them handling domestic and regional travel.

In June 2014, Illinois-based firm, AAR, a global aerospace, government and defense contractor, became the first aviation company to land a multi-year deal after it won a five-year multi-million-dollar agreement with Kenya Airways to provide power-by-the-hour component support for its fleet of 737NG aircraft. U.S. aircraft part suppliers are encouraged to maintain their marketing presence, since it takes long before a purchase contract is signed for big-ticket items.

In February 2017, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) granted JKIA Category 1 status paving way for direct flights between Kenya and the United States. This rating gives Kenya additional opportunity for growth in both passenger and cargo especially exports of cut flowers and apparel under the AGOA duty free status.  Kenya Airways is set to begin direct flights between Nairobi and New York on October 28, 2018.

In 2017, Boeing opened an office in Nairobi to position itself for the anticipated aircraft demand in Africa between now and 2015.  Boeing says it expects air traffic to, from, and in Africa to grow by about 6.1% a year over the next 20 years as airplane technology continues to increase fuel efficiency.  This will drive sales of aircraft in the region in addition to replacement of aging aircraft. 
Kenya is by far the biggest military spender in the region and commands one of the best equipped and trained military forces in Africa. However, it was deemed necessary to further increase military spending on hardware and personnel to address emerging security threats. This was underlined when the U.S. Congress finally approved the acquisition of weapons for the Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) from various U.S. military hardware suppliers. Key amongst these included 12 MD530F Cayuse Warrior helicopters for the Kenya Air Force to replace their legacy MD500 aircraft. These were in addition to an acquisition of six Bell UH-1Y helicopters that the KDF had acquired from the U.S. military.

Enhancement of intelligence gathering capabilities is also a ket driver and to bolster those capabilities, Kenya agreed to acquire at least 12 Air Tractor AT-802L aircraft from the U.S. to provide low-cost intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) for the KDF as well as provide assistance to Kenyan ground forces in Somalia.

Leading Sub-Sectors
Direct investments and joint ventures in aircraft parts, repair and maintenance, and equipment for the domestic and regional markets include medium and heavy aircraft assembly, fabrication of components, parts and sub-assemblies for aircraft communications, navigation and surveillance equipment. Aircraft, aircraft spare parts, and jet fuel imports are duty free. Nairobi's Wilson Airport is the busiest general aviation airport in Africa and serves as the regional small aircraft maintenance center. The Defense sector also provides opportunities as the Government of Kenya seeks to add latest military aircraft to exisiting fleet.

Opportunities

Of the 1388 Kenyan aircraft officially registered with the KCAA, only 51% have valid airworthiness certificates. Out of these, over 80 percent were classified as small aircraft (those with a certified maximum take-off weight of less than 10,000 kilograms). The remainder is large aircraft (with a certified maximum take-off weight exceeding 9,000 kilograms). In the small aircraft category, popular aircraft types such as Cessna, Piper, and Beechcraft dominate the category with over a 70 percent market share. Large aircraft are dominated by Boeing, Embraer, de Havilland Canada (DHC 5- Dash 8 series) and Fokkers. Kenya presents a major replacement market for general aviation aircraft: over 400 aircraft have expired certificates of airworthiness and an additional, significant group have valid certificates for aircraft that are more than 25 years old. The oldest registered aircraft with a valid airworthiness certificate is between 56 and 60 years old. Additionally, there is an ongoing opportunity for replacement aircraft sales.

There is also an opportunity for refurbishment and replacement of outdated cabin spaces in line with current passenger demands for comfort.


With the ongoing expansion of the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi to accommodate increased flight movements, it is reasonable to expect that as tourist and business visitor numbers increase, so will the demand for additional aircraft and aircraft spare parts.

For More Information please contact:
Mary Masyuko
Senior Commercial Specialist
U.S. Commercial Service, U.S. Embassy Nairobi
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
Tel: +254 (20) 363-6063; Mary.Masyuko@trade.gov;

Web Resources

Business Monitor International
Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure
Kenya Airports Authority
Kenya Civil Aviation Authority
Kenya Airways
Aero Club of East Africa
 

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